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In the first round, the two PS candidates ended up with similar results: A small but significant number of right-wingers likely voted for Fountaine by the first round. A good number of FN voters may also have backed Fountaine, who picked up over 4, votes between both rounds. The right gained 2, votes and the left won only more votes. The two-term centre-left mayor of Ajaccio, Simon Renucci, was defeated by UMP defeated Laurent Marcangeli, who had defeated Renucci two years ago in the legislative elections.
Renucci had placed narrowly ahead in the first round, but Marcangeli took advantage of better reserves the FN, with 8. Joseph Filippi, the common candidate of both major nationalist parties in Corsica Femu a Corsica and Corsica Libera , saw his support decline in the second round — he won 6. Isabelle le Bal, a MoDem municipal councillor, won With good transfers from the MoDem and probably the FN 8.
PCF mayor Claudine Cordillot in office since has been criticized, even on the left, for her urban densification policies, tax increases, insecurity problems and inefficient public services. In the first round, supported by the PS, her list won only The new majority, given how heterogeneous it is and why it came together, will probably not survive its entire term.
David Rachline FN This year, the problem was that the right was badly divided. In the first round, the FN candidate, David Rachline, a former FN youth leader elected to the municipal council in Mougin trailed in a very distant second with The PS candidate withdrew to block the FN, but the two right-wing candidates failed to reach an agreement. The divisions of the right made it a near-certainty that the FN would emerge victorious, and it did. His protege, Jean-Pierre Bechter UMP , won a by-election and another by-election in , has also been indicted for benefiting from vote buying and electoral corruption organized by Dassault in the last 3 elections.
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In the first round, Bechter placed first with Both lists merged, but vote transfers from the PS and smaller left-wing lists 2 DVG, 1 far-left proved very poor, given that, in the first round, the left held a theoretical majority but only won A political sea-change in Bastia: the Zuccarelli clan, which has governed the city since , was ousted from office. In the first round, Zuccarelli Jr came in first, with In a distant third, Tatti won The right governed the city between and , and generally held the corresponding canton for most of that time as well.
The incumbent PS mayor, Laurent Kalinowski gained the city in because of a very divided right. In , Kalinowski was elected deputy, narrowly defeated Philippot in a two-way runoff — the UMP deputy was eliminated by the first round.
In the first round, Philippot placed first with The result was a surprisingly comfortable reelection for the PS incumbent, with Philippot only won an additional votes. The two right-wing candidates saw their support dry up: Diligent lost votes, the UMP guy lost votes and fell to only 5. Seemingly, the public endorsement of the PS incumbent by a locally prominent UMP personality had a major impact on a lot of right-wing supporters who chose to vote strategically for the PS to defeat the FN.
Rebsamen, who was first elected in , will not be serving out his third term given that he was named to the new Valls government. He won Vergriete won She won The FN won 8.
Transfers from the PS list which won The city leans to the left, and with a popular incumbent retiring, the PS was able to gain Douai with Boris Ravignon UMP , a general and municipal councillor and former adviser to Sarkozy, was easily elected with Ravignon had already taken a wide lead in the first round, with A major blow for the PS came from Bourges , one of the few towns where the left still had reason to be optimistic about a gain from the right after the first round.
In the first round, both left and right had been split between PS and FG Brive was a Gaullist stronghold between and , with left-wing Gaullist Jean Charbonnel as mayor between and A DVG candidate won UMP general councillor Nicolas Daragon winning The right had held the city between and before the left gained it six years ago.
In Cogolin , the only town in which the FN won an absolute majority in the second round, the FN won The left, which held city hall, won The incumbent mayor was reelected with UMP deputy Julien Aubert saw his first round support The incumbent PS mayor, who placed third with Larrat, who was third in the first round with The PS fell just short of gaining Bayonne , taking However, the right resolved its divisions before the second round, while the PS suffered from the decision of the Basque nationalists to maintain their list, and the merger of the FG list with the abertzale left. In the wealthy coastal resort town of Biarritz , Michel Veunac MoDem , a regional councillor backed by retiring mayor Didier Borotra MoDem , was narrowly elected with The FG increased its vote to FN candidate Cyril Nauth, a nobody who barely campaign, was elected with Aeschlimann, who was sentenced in a corruption scandal in , had been particularly controversial as mayor, for his very authoritarian and nepotistic management of the city.
She was elected with EELV won Firmly on the right of the UMP, Raoult found himself accused of sexual harassment sexting during the campaign. Posted in France , Regional and local elections. Mar The first round of municipal elections were held in France on March 23, The municipal councils of nearly all 36, communes in France — in metropolitan France, Corsica and all but four overseas collectivities.
I covered the complex structure, workings, powers and responsibilities of French municipal government as well as the details on the electoral systems in a first preview post.
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In a second preview post , I listed the major races in the main towns. To summarize, for those unwilling to read the full details, in communes with over 1, inhabitants which means about 9, communes altogether, but making up the vast majority of the population , elections are held by closed party-list voting. In the second round, a relative majority suffices. The list which wins, either in the first or second round, is immediately allocated half the seats in the municipal council. The size of the municipal council varies based on the population of the commune, from 7 to 69 seats. Lyon has 73 seats, Marseille has and Paris has Abstention was about While following a trend of declining turnout in local elections, turnout was higher than in the legislative elections This is evidenced by the very high turnout in the last two, high-stakes, presidential elections in and As in the past, turnout was highest in rural communes with a small population where voters often personally know the candidates and the municipal election has a very local, close-to-home dimension while it was lowest in the largest urban areas Sporadic voting and systematic abstention is positively correlated to lower levels of education and incomes; the feeling of political dissatisfaction and disconnect with the political system is particularly acute in those places.
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Corsica is an interesting case, because it has particularly low turnout in presidential elections In past elections where the governing party is particularly unpopular regionals, for example , turnout from government supporters was lower. The overall result of the first round can be summarized thus: a major victory for the far-right FN, a bad thumping for the governing PS and the makings of a good overall election for the UMP. It obtained very strong results in many other cities, most significantly Marseille, where the FN placed second overall, ahead of the PS.
All that notwithstanding, it was very much a great night for the FN. Therefore, that the FN has been able to draw a significant number of voters to vote for their lists in many cases, led by nobodies or obscure party bosses and officeholders in a locally-focused election is a clear success for the FN. On the left, the main loser were the governing leftist parties from As some cities show most notably Grenoble there was a strong vote for left-wing candidates outside the PS; in other places, it is also clear that the PS label hurt candidates, with Montreuil being the best example.
In several cities, especially Marseille, the pollsters were wrong — often underestimating the FN, but also overestimating the PS in a lot of cases.
What happened? Was it their turnout models?
The turnout was not a surprise to anyone who had been following things, and pollsters knew that and their turnout estimates were generally correct. Was it the difficulty of polling a fairly micro level? It could end up like , although the second round in there had been a small rally-round-the-flag effect on the left which allowed the PS to unexpectedly save a few things Lille. Gaillard, who has been deputy for the area since , gained the city hall in , running as the official PS candidate against the incumbent mayor, Alain Baudin, who was not selected by the PS and ran as a dissident.
The episode created much bad blood on the left, and Gaillard was accused by members of the PS majority of authoritarianism. The town had been ruled by Socialists since and Hollande won The incumbent who was defeated had taken office in , after his predecessor was indicted in a corruption case in Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, who is as unpopular as Hollande and very much of a low-key non-entity with weak authority over his cabinet, may be replaced and other cabinet ministers will likely go too.
Cabinet shuffles are commonplace in France after a government takes a thumping in a midterm election, and it rarely improves matters for the government in the long run. In this case, the actual race in the arrondissements indicates that Hidalgo, the PS candidate, remains the narrow favourite to win in the second round. Even if the UMP were to win both these arrondissements on March 30, it would not be enough because they have 2 and 4 conseillers de Paris respectively.
As a handy simulator on Slate. With the merger of the EELV lists Yet, if NKM is to become mayor, the UMP lists must absolutely win both arrondissements, and that would give them a very narrow majority in the Council of Paris. This also assumes that the UMP holds all arrondissements it currently has, whereas the 5th arrondissement is very tight. In the first round, the PS list won The 5th is an old right-wing stronghold — it was where Jacques Chirac got elected when he was mayor from to — but it has shifted to the left in the past few years, with Hollande winning The runoff there will be close, but assuming good transfers from Tiberi to the UMP, the right has a narrow advantage.
Therefore, given the numbers and where the race is fought, Hidalgo and the left remain the favourites. The UMP had a much better performance than in , when it won only The UMP won four arrondissements by the first round. In the 7th and 8th, two other solidly right-wing very affluent arrondissements, the UMP will have to wait for March 30 to win, because of strong dissident candidates on the right. In the 8th, the UMP list won Unlike in , when the PS won several of its strongholds by the first round, no PS list won outright on March Paris still has a significant poor population many immigrants or foreigners , with heavy concentrations in a string of HLM towers in the periphery of the city.
The 19th, historically working-class, is similar: there is a contrast between deprived peripheral areas La Villette and some more recently gentrified areas Buttes-Chaumont. The 20th is the most left-wing arrondissement in Paris, with In the 15th, a bourgeois but not always so: until the s, it was more blue-collar and the PCF polled quite well arrondissement where Hidalgo has run in the past, her own list did poorly with only EELV won 8.
The PG, on the other hand, did poorly — its 4.
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The PG and PS found no agreement and Simonnet maintains her list in the runoff; the PS seemed to have very little interest in reaching an agreement with the PG, with the PG decrying the conditions in which they were received by the PS in some backroom which looked more like a storage shack. The FN won 6. Although Paris was once a FN stronghold — in , for example — the city, with the aforementioned social and cultural changes, has become a dead zone for the far-right whose results have gotten progressively worse since the late s.
The second round may prove closer than expected, but the dynamics and structure of the election indicate that Hidalgo, despite a mediocre first round showing, remains the favourite, especially in the two key arrondissements where the election will be played out. After the first round, Marseille came to symbolize the rout of the PS. It came very close in , and despite the unfavourable national climate, it had some reason to be optimistic this year.
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When the results came in, the PS was left reeling — in awe, wondering what just happened. The pollsters were all wrong: the UMP lists placed far ahead of the pack, with The PS has no chance of winning Marseille on March 30; the focus is now on saving what can be saved, which is a fairly important task in its own right because what is saved on March 30 will be crucial for senatorial elections in the fall.
The FG, which won a very mediocre 7. Independent left-leaning and anti-establishment lists led by Pape Diouf, the former president of the Olympique de Marseille OM football club from to , won 5. Instead, Diouf announced that there would be no merger and refused to endorse anybody. His decision, apparently taken autocratically, irked many of his supporters. In the 7th sector, the other northern sector, the PS list led by incumbent mayor Garo Hovsepian is trailing in third place, with His list has merged with that of the UMP; according to this deal, Assante will retain his mayoral position, something which in turns alienates Boyer, who had been promised that job.
The most shocking result is from the 2nd sector, a very poor left-wing stronghold. The UMP list placed first with Andrieux was allegedly unwilling to see Masse, a potential rival for her seat, establish a rival foothold.